This was largely due to a surge in business spending on equipment (especially computing and transportation equipment) and elevated investment in structures (especially in manufacturing). Meanwhile, following weak growth in Q1 2023, business investment bounced back in Q2 2023 despite interest rate increases. As inflation and interest rates abate later in 2024, we expect consumption to begin to expand once more. Thus, we forecast that overall consumer spending growth will slow towards yearend and then contract in Q1 2024 and Q2 2024. Additionally, new student loan repayment requirements will begin to impact many consumers starting in October. Compensation growth is decelerating, pandemic savings are dwindling, and household debt is rising rapidly. However, this trend cannot hold, in our view. US consumer spending has held up remarkably well this year despite elevated inflation and higher interest rates. We forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024. This outlook is associated with numerous factors, including, elevated inflation, high interest rates, dissipating pandemic savings, mounting consumer debt, lower government spending, and the resumption of mandatory student loan repayments. The Conference Board forecasts that US economic growth will buckle under mounting headwinds early next year, leading to a very short and shallow recession. The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy
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